We’re less than a month away from training camp and you can feel the momentum building towards Fantasy Football season. For the redraft crowd, that means it is time to plug back in, but I know you guys never unplugged. Two other guys who never unplug are Jacob Gibbs of Sportsline and Dwain McFarland of Fantasy Life. They joined me on Fantasy Football Today Dynasty this week to talk about Dynasty buys and the importance of per-route data when evaluating pass catchers. You can watch it here:

Since that episode was focused mostly on younger wide receivers, let’s stay right there for our first question this week:

Second-year breakout WRs

That would be a pretty big leap for any of these guys to make, but Treylon Burks seems considerably more likely to make that leap than George Pickens and Jameson Williams. For one thing, there is no one standing in Burks’ way in terms of target competition unless DeAndre Hopkins signs with the Titans. Pickens has to beat out Diontae Johnson, who is flat-out elite at earning targets, and Williams won’t even be able to practice with the Lions for the first six weeks of the season due to a gambling suspension, then he’ll be behind Amon-Ra St. Brown at the very least.

Burks’ final season at Arkansas shows the path to him making the leap. That year, on a team that ran nearly twice as often as it passed, Burks accounted for 32% of his team’s receptions, 39.7% of their receiving yards, and 50% of their receiving touchdowns. Burks still has that alpha upside and he has the opportunity to see it come to fruition as soon as 2023.

Rebuilding with draft picks

This is a great question about rebuilding from Lyle and the answer, in my opinion, really depends on where you are in the process. My average rebuild takes two years, and that can stretch into Year 3 if things don’t go well. If I am at the beginning of that process, tearing down, I want as many picks as possible, and I am fine if they are a year or two out. Those picks in future years are just about the only Dynasty assets that are guaranteed to gain value over the first twelve months of the rebuild.

Once I have built a strong receiving corps and I have my quarterback, I start looking at consolidating picks for superstars. A prime example is a rebuild that is heading into Year 3 in a league most of the CBS Fantasy crew plays in. That team has Patrick Mahomes, Garrett Wilson, DeVonta Smith, Drake London, and Jordan Addison. I already threw a couple of future picks at Mark Andrews, and I am attempting to throw more future picks at running backs. It’s time to go from rebuilding to contending, and that involves running backs and stars.

Josh Allen concerns

If this is related to the Twitter thread I did this week comparing Cam Newton and Josh Allen, I’m sorry. I wouldn’t go all the way to worried on Allen, but he’s not my QB2 in Dynasty, Jalen Hurts is. I would say I am concerned, or at least interested to see, what the next evolution of Allen is. Because I don’t believe he can keep playing like he has played for very long.

The reason for the comparison to Newton, and it’s pretty close through five years, is because they are built very similarly and people seem to shrug off the hits Allen takes much like they used to with Newton. In fact, the players themselves laugh those hits off. But we have never seen anyone take those kinds of hits into their 30s and remain a good NFL quarterback. The beating is just too much. 

If Allen protects himself better and has another year passing like 2020, he could climb back to No. 1 at QB. If he doesn’t, he could fall behind Joe Burrow or Justin Fields by midseason.

Tight ends as flexes

One of the great things about tight end premium leagues like the one that Ry is talking about, is that you can use tight ends as flexes. In a league like this where tight ends get double the points for catches, last year’s TE13 (Gerald Everett) would have scored 195.5 Fantasy points. That would have ranked 49th among all running backs, wide receivers, and tight ends in a full PPR league last year. It would have been better than David Montgomery, Diontae Johnson, Drake London, and Devin Singletary in 2022. 

The other advantage of doing this earlier in the draft with elite tight ends is that there are only so many of them, and you’ll be forcing someone else into starting someone like Everett in their tight end slot instead of their flex. In this format, Travis Kelce should be the first player drafted and Mark Andrews should be a Round 1 pick. Every tight end should be bumped at least a couple of rounds.

From Michael on Threads:

How do you value Trey Lance in Superflex leagues? 

It’s not easy, Michael. Few players in Fantasy have a wider potential range of outcomes than Lance. Because of his athleticism, we’d view him as a Fantasy starter the moment he gets a chance to start. But it does not sound like the 49ers are planning on start him or trade him. In other words, he cannot be more than your No. 3 and he’s not even a reliable No. 3 at that. I would want to roster three other quarterbacks if I had Lance on my team, and there’s an opportunity cost right there.

At the same time, you’ve seen what Jalen Hurts and Justin Fields have done the past two years. You know rushing QBs can break Fantasy leagues. That upside keeps Lance just inside my top-20 QBs in Dynasty. But if he spends the first month of 2023 riding the pine, it will be hard to keep him there.

From Dan in our inbox:

Trade away AJ Dillon for Dalvin Cook? I’m in win now mode. 10 team PPR

I currently have Dillon at RB29 and Cook at RB25 in my Dynasty running back rankings, so the short answer is yes, I would. I do think there is a small risk that Cook overplays his hand and gets left without a chair when the music stops this fall. Not that I think he will be without a team, but it may not be the type of role he’s been used to. Still, Dillon was pretty mediocre last year and probably needs an injury to Jones to pay off. I would reluctantly make the deal; you won’t be able to get Cook this cheap if he signs in the next week or two.